Original predictions posted on Twitter, 9 November 2016.
My predictions would almost certainly be wrong, but they provided a baseline of assumptions – something to work with in the face of overwhelming uncertainty. Primarily, though, predicting the future was (and is) a tool to reckon with the present, in both of its aspects: the state of affairs and the direction of pull.
For that reason, the right benchmark for judging predictions is not their accuracy but how useful they are. They provide a compass, not a road map. Being right doesn't matter. Knowing what to look out for does.
They also turned out to be a little less wrong than I expected.
(Original tweets slightly edited for readability.)
I'll go out on a limb and make some Trump predictions. Let's see how that goes.
Trump has prioritized perceptions over convictions during the campaign. That will continue into his presidency.
Under George W. Bush, a lack of convictions allowed a determined ideological faction to take over policy. Can happen again now. If it does, God help us. But if Trump's ideological vacuum is allowed to persist, his policies will be largely pragmatic. Trump will just care about and manage appearance. So watch Pence and advisers for policy.
China: Trump understands its importance for the US economy. Shies away from confrontation, doesn't care about democracy. Relations improve.
Syria: Trump aligns himself with Russia, withdraws support for the opposition. Kurds collapse, Assad reasserts control over most of the country. The IS pocket in eastern Syria is too costly to tackle for Russia and Assad. Is allowed to persist. Helps Turkey keep the Kurds in check, too.
Iraq: Trump can appear to be tough on IS without substantial commitments. US support for anti-IS ops continues. No role beyond that.
Trump will take an opportunistic approach to longstanding alliances. No backing for Japan or Taiwan in territorial struggles with China.
Russia tests the waters in the Baltic. Provocations there will preoccupy a weakened Nato, giving Russia room for manoeuvre elsewhere. Eastern Ukraine under permanent, indirect Russian control. Stays messy internally, low-level conflict on border, similar to Abkhazia.
Africa – no substantial interest. The Americas? I have no clue. There won't be a wall, but there will be a "wall".
Immigrants will be made to feel even less secure, but are left alone otherwise because of their importance to the economy.
The frustrations of his voters got Trump elected. He can't resolve them and needs to channel them elsewhere to get re-elected. We might see a confrontation abroad towards the end of his term, but stopping short of war. Maybe around Iranian nukes, or North Korea.
Be relieved, I'm done with predictions. I wonder how long it will take for them to seem moronic. Hoping for a week.