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Syria after Assad

Has ISIS infiltrated the rebel alliance?

Posted on Bluesky, 17 December 2024.

Signs are growing that the return of ISIS in Syria is no longer just an imminent threat. It might have happened already.

ISIS fighters are acting on behalf of Turkey, or so it appears. They seem to have infiltrated part of the rebel alliance. If true, the implications are huge. A link between ISIS, Turkey and the new government in Syria would affect how Europe and the US approach the volatile situation and worsen their relations with Ankara. Prospects for peace in Syria would be grim. But what is really going on?

Videos show militiamen with ISIS insignia, e.g. moving into Aleppo at the end of November and operating in Manbij as part of Turkish-backed forces in their push against the Kurds. Are the videos real? At least one of them is. A fighter with an ISIS patch on his uniform appeared live on Turkish TV.

The segment has been published by the channel itself on X/Twitter. The reporter is with the Turkish proxy force, the Syrian National Army (SNA). They are manning a checkpoint and looking for "terrorists": the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF. One of SNA soldiers can be identified as ISIS. This scene is particularly credible because it is so damaging to the Turkish narrative. Turkey claims to be fighting terrorism by attacking the PKK and its Syrian affiliate. ISIS in their own ranks would be the last thing they'd want to see in public.

SNA fighter with ISIS arm patch on Habertürk TV
SNA fighter with ISIS arm patch on Habertürk TV

Their opponents, the Kurdish forces, are near desperate to promote their own crucial role in the fight against terrorism. Their position has become precarious. They are under attack by Turkey and its proxies and in danger of losing crucial US support. Trump has declared that Syria IS NOT OUR FIGHT. His position is not new. He ordered US forces out of the region in 2018, then partially reversed his decision. The threat of ISIS returning played a key role in getting him to reconsider the withdrawal. The ISIS menace has kept a limited US force operating alongside the Kurdish SDF.

The SDF needs that line of argument to work again today. The threat is real, but Kurdish officials are likely to embellish it. Their claims must be treated with caution. Yet now there is evidence. Does the ISIS cameo on Turkish TV prove that it is back, in a cosy relationship with Erdoğan's SNA?

Well, it's complicated. Another video offers a glimpse into the mess of militias roaming the north of Syria in shifting alliances. It has been published by the Islamist "Movement of Noor ad-Din az-Zenki", a militia which used to fight the regime in Aleppo. At times, it took an anti-ISIS stance. It later fought, lost against, then joined an-Nusra/HTS, left again after a while, fought them some more. It eventually dissolved into the Turkish-led SNA in 2019 but reappeared later, at one point as part of a grouping close to the HTS and obstructing the Turks. Then it went back to the SNA.

The "Movement" was just one of many pieces on a chessboard full of mafia-like militias and warlords, their affiliations changing all the time. The SNA operates as a shifting collection of these groups, which enter and exit, just as individual fighters move from one military outfit to another.

Fighters purportedly belonging to the Harakat Nour ad-Din az-Zenki: one with an ISIS patch, another with the Syrian three-star flag.
Fighters purportedly belonging to the Harakat Nour ad-Din az-Zenki: one with an ISIS patch, another with the Syrian three-star flag.

Now, the video. The "Movement of Noor ad-Din az-Zenki" claims it shows their fighters in Aleppo. One of them has the Syrian three-star flag on his uniform, which fighters loyal to the Islamic State caliphate would not wear. But among them is also at least one ISIS guy. There are several explanations for that kind of symbiosis. The "Movement" is an Islamist group; fighters aligned with ISIS presumably fit in just fine if they are more focused on fighting, violence and a salary than on the finer points of ideology. Borders between groups are porous.

Or perhaps we observe the proliferation of patches. Symbols sometimes spread faster than loyalty. It happens in other conflicts, too. Neo-Nazi symbols have spread in the Ukraine war. They have become normalized and "cool". Yet they are not always a sign of strong affiliation or membership. That doesn't make these trends benign, though.

In Syria, it is hard to gauge the extent to which Islamic State loyalists have made inroads into the SNA. Kurdish authorities, unsurprisingly, claim heavy ISIS involvement, citing documents they say were found on a killed SNA fighter. As I have said, I am a bit sceptical about evidence originating from the Kurds. It suits them too much to be credible without corroboration.

I would argue that it is still unclear if ISIS is present inside the SNA as an organisation. But it is safe to say that some ISIS influence is there.

Update: New evidence

Posted on Bluesky and X/Twitter, 28 December 2024.

More evidence of ISIS influence within the SNA, Erdoğan's proxy force in Syria, has emerged - this time captured by a German TV team in Homs.

That doesn't fundamentally change the analysis, but it does lead to a different conclusion. It seems pretty easy to run into fighters with ISIS patches at random. It suggests that ISIS influence is widespread. The most benign interpretation is that there are a lot of ISIS fanboys in the ranks of the SNA. Or it could mean that ISIS in Syria is no longer isolated and has successfully infiltrated some of the forces which will now turn into the new Syrian army.

Either way, ISIS prisoners in al-Hol and other detention facilities currently run by the Kurds have every reason to believe that they will be liberated soon. That should set off alarm bells pretty much everywhere.