Posted on Bluesky and X/Twitter, 12 January 2025.
The decline is no longer down to couples deciding they don't want kids, or can't afford to have them, or a lack of childcare. That matters much less than in the past. The main driver of falling birth rates is: staying single.
Young people form long-term relationships less often, leading to fewer births. Among those who move in with their partner, the number of kids has not gone down much in recent times (in contrast to the last century). Both trends are global.
Policies trying to persuade couples to have kids target the wrong audience. Governments would have to find ways to encourage relationships instead. But it is not entirely clear why so many people stay single. Social media seems to play a role. Young men and women live their lives in different internet bubbles. Attitudes and expectations diverge. Their political views grow apart, unlike in previous generations. Mobile phones are everywhere, spreading change worldwide.
That cultural shift can't be reversed by decree or public funding. For now, fewer couples and a declining birth rate seem to be a fact of life. Which is why, paradoxically, policies encouraging couples to have kids are all the more important. If governments can't address the root of the problem, at least they can try to offset it. Creating a child-friendly environment is one of the few levers they have. It may be imperfect, but given the urgency, policymakers should use every tool in their box.