In exchange for peace, Ukraine can limit the size of its military

Posted on Bluesky and X/Twitter, 24 November 2025.

The US peace plan aims to limit the size of Ukraine's military to 600.000 troops. Many seem to think that this limit is dangerously low - a claim repeated by European governments. But that is nonsense.

Currently, Ukraine fields about 850.000 troops. Units suffer from low morale, a large number of desertions (to the tune of approximately 20.000 cases last month), a shortage of equipment, an even more acute shortage of munitions and a woeful level of training. If Ukraine could exchange its current forces for a well-trained, well-equipped, motivated and rested army of 600.000, it should jump at the opportunity.

But it can't. The strength of Ukraine's military will indeed be curtailed, though not by the cap envisaged in the plan.

Money will be the limiting factor. A standing army of 600.000 would make Ukraine's military the second largest in Europe, apart from Russia's, larger than that of any Nato member except the US, matching the forces of France, the UK, Germany and Canada combined.

There is a reason Nato member states, apart from the US, don't have armies of that size. They can't afford to. Neither will Ukraine once the war is over. It will have to deal with the consequences of large-scale destruction for years if not decades to come. Ukraine faces a massive mine problem, has to accommodate huge numbers of internal refugees, suffers from major corruption issues, must rebuild broken infrastructure and a heavily damaged industrial base, is hampered by low tax morale and settled with crushing debt.

On top of all that, support from allies will dwindle once the immediate crisis is over and voters no longer tolerate the sacrifices benefitting Ukraine. And we haven't even touched upon the emerging internal divisions and the risk of political instability in a post-war period. The country is awash with weapons. Hundreds of thousands of decommissioned troops must be reintegrated into society, many of whom will suffer from PTSD. Expect a surge in crime and violence. If the settlement with Russia leads to acrimony, some of that violence will be political.

A peace of some sort will end the carnage of the war. But the challenges awaiting Ukraine afterwards are enormous. How can Ukraine, in these circumstances, be expected to maintain an army none of the affluent countries in Western Europe could afford?

This is why security guarantees are so important. There is no way Ukraine can pay for a deterrent of sufficient size to keep Russia at bay. There are many issues with the US peace plan, but the cap on Ukraine's forces is not one of them.